Bet against the Eagles RB at your own risk

Quarterbacks are making a push for the top spot, as are a trio of running backs, but don’t make things harder than they need to be, and use your top overall fantasy football draft pick on LeSean McCoy. “Caps Lock” is in only his fourth season, and has experienced extreme growth over his first three seasons in the league.  Since left Pittsburgh, McCoy has seen his carries increase by 59 per year, resulting in an increase in 336 rushing yards per year. The extended workload clearly isn’t affecting his productivity, as that equates to 5.7 yards per additional carry. The knock on Shady was always his inability to score, but he proved the doubters wrong as he tallied 20 scores last season. In fact, his rushing and receiving touchdowns have both been consistently increasing since he stepped into the Eagles backfield. His total scores have at least doubled from season to season every year thus far, and while that may not be reasonable for 2012-2013, it shows that the Eagles trust McCoy to get to paydirt. On top of elite running numbers, he has averaged 55.6 receptions per year, allowing him to keep up with Arian Foster and Ray Rice. You already knew McCoy was solid, but why will he produce more fantasy football glory than Foster and Rice in fantasy football salary cap games and all other formats?

Let’s start with the preseason favorite to be salary cap fantasy football’s top most valuable: Arian Foster. He’s a great back, there is no doubt about that, but the stars won’t align in his favor this season. Foster is two years older than McCoy, and while he is still a young 26 years old, younger is better when it comes to ball carriers. The Texans have plenty of other scoring threats, as Andre Johnson is the game’s best receiver and toe Ben Tate/Derrick Ward tandem proved viable inside the opponent’s 10 yard line. Johnson was banged up last year, but will enter this season with a full off season and 100% health, making it reasonable to assume that his TD’s increase. Health was a bit of a concern for Foster last year, as he missed time early in the season nursing a hamstring injury that went viral. The injury cost him more time than McCoy has missed in his career, something that I’d suggest thinking about before spending your top pick on Foster. But the Texans back isn’t the only other elite option out there, as you’ve got a Raven who stakes a strong claim for the coveted #1 overall fantasy player.

Ray Rice has produced in a monster way since he left Rutgers, and there is no reason to think he won’t continue lighting up SuperStakes Sundays Satellites scoreboards on a weekly basis; he just won’t be producing at quite the level of LeSean McCoy. The big concern for Baltimore is Joe Flacco, as teams are willing to let him beat them, as long as they hold Rice in check. The Eagles have the reverse problem, as team’s game plan for the athleticism of Mike Vick.  If the 8 man fronts don’t scare you, then these statistics from last year might do the trick. While Rice scored at a similar rate of McCoy, the odds of that continuing seem to be remote. He recorded 62% of his carries on his own half of the field, relying on the big play to score. Those long TD’s are nice, but very difficult to forecast. I’ll take my chances on McCoy outscoring Rice this season, as only 50.6% of his carries came on the wrong side of midfield. Consistency has also been a bit of a souring note on Rice, as he has seen his yards per carry fluctuate by at least 0.7 yards every single season. This means that based on last season (4.7 ypc) he either goes for 5.4 ypc or 4.0 ypc this year, too big of a gamble for me at the top spot of a draft. Building on consistency as a determining factor, Rice ran for 66 or fewer yards 8 times last year. Forget being the top back in the league, he probably wasn’t the top RB on your roster for 50% of last year. McCoy only recorded 4 such games, providing a consistent fantasy production on a week to week basis. Finally, the one part of the schedule that stays the same from year to year (8 home games) is concerning when discussing Ray Rice. The Baltimore back averaged a mere 3.9 yards per carry at home, 1.2 yards fewer than McCoy registered per carry in Philadelphia.

It’s not an easy choice by any means, but siding with LeSean McCoy gives you a workhorse that you can rely on in an explosive offense. The 24 year old RB had a career year in 2011, and figures to continue to lead faithful fantasy football 2012 owners to the promise land as 2012′s top  fantasy  football player.

Will Michael Vick be the premier fantasy football quarterback in the NFC East in 2012?

2012 NFC East Preview: Standings

Philadelphia Eagles          11 – 5

Dallas Cowboys                    10 – 6

New York Giants                  10 – 6

Washington Redskins      8 – 8

QBs

Michael Vick:  The only real question with Vick is how many games will he play? If he starts 13+ his fantasy football value is tremendous. In most fantasy football leagues, Vick should end up as a top seven QB. If you happen to be in a Franchise QB League where you automatically own the rights to your QB’s team’s QB. So if Vick goes down, you end up with a rookie type player, but at least he’ll still be throwing to DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, Brent Celek and most importantly LeSean McCoy. Overall, the upside on the Eagles offense is tremendous – especially with Vick at the helm.

Eli Manning: Eli(te) certainly made his argument for being a great QB last season and I’ll give credit where it’s due. If not for Vick’s duel threat with his legs, Eli would probably earn the top spot in the NFC East. With weapons in Ahmad Bradshaw, Victor Cruz, and Hakeem Nicks, Eli’s fantasy value is as high as ever. Keep in mind when drafting and ranking QBs, this division is going to look pretty deep with a lot of strong QB talents. Eli is certainly one of them.

Robert Griffin III: No disrespect to Tony Romo, but I’m certainly rooting for a Cam Newton type season out of RG3. Washington won’t be able to get it together completely in 2012, but they have enough pieces in place (more than Carolina did probably), that Griffin is set up to really shine. He’ll have a lot of receiver options to choose from at camp including Santana Moss, Pierre Garcon, Josh Morgan, Fred Davis, and even second year receiver Leonard Hankerson. Don’t bet the farm on RG3, but he’d be a nice QB to have on your bench week 6 after he put up 16-20 TDs. RG3 could be a player that will be part of my later discussed “Cam Newton Back Up QB” strategy.

Tony Romo: If you end up starting Romo week 1 this season, you’ll be a pretty happy fantasy manager. Romo also has some nice options in what should be a pretty strong offensive team as well. Dez Bryant, Miles Austin, Jason Witten, Demarco Murray, and Felix Jones will do their part to put up big offensive numbers for whoever their QB happens to be.

RBs

LeSean McCoy: He’s probably the biggest part of the biggest offense in the East.

Ahmad Bradshaw: Depending on how much action rookie David Wilson gets, Bradshaw should be a big part of this offense again.

Felix Jones/DeMarco Murray: Can they both put up big numbers? Maybe, but look for signs of which player will start and get the majority of the action. Likely Jones.

Roy Helu: If Helu drops the ball, look for Evan Royster as a late round sleeper. A couple solid starts late in 2011, either one of these guys could earn a solid spot start on your roster.

WRs

Miles Austin: Probably has the combined most talent and biggest target factors working for him, and when healthy all he does is put up big numbers.

Victor Cruz: He’s proven he’s the number one receiver in this offense and should lead the team again.

Jeremy Maclin: He splits too much with Desean, but in a pass happy offense, he’ll put up numbers.

Desean Jackson: Practically the same as Maclin with a higher chance for a homerun game.

Pierre Garcon: He’s a talented receiver dropped in the rankings because of the new team. Nice upside.

Dez Bryant: Extremely talented but lacks a little bit in the head. If he ends up being the receiver he’s supposed to be, Dez could easily end up at the top of this list.

Hakeem Nicks: He’ll put up better numbers than Cruz in some games, but not the majority. Cruz has proved he’s the more explosive receiver, and a go to receiver for Eli.

TEs

Jason Witten: A big receiver that can run, and you couldn’t ask for better hands. He’s definitely still a top 5 TE, even at a very deep position.

Fred Davis: Coming off a strong year finishing with a suspension, look for Davis to make friends with RG3 and continue putting up big numbers.

Brent Celek: His numbers from a few years back may not reappear, but at least we know his potential upside. If the Eagles can get their offensive line in order, Celek could be set for another stand out year.

Martellus Bennett: Jake Ballard is still around, but the Giants went out and signed Bennett, previously a strong “recruit” for the Cowboys under Witten. It’s still a bit of a question how talented Bennett really is and how much Eli likes passing to his TE, but if the timing is right, he may be worth a late round pick and a couple weeks to wait and see.

I’ll dissect the rest of the NFC in the coming weeks, and stay tuned after that as I’ll cover all the divisions in the AFC and every impact fantasy football player!

LeSean McCoy is running free of the competion at the top of the draft board.

Compared to quarterbacks, this update will look pretty familiar to those who read the 2012 fantasy football rankings in January. Among the names at the top, there simply has not been much change over the offseason.  No big trades. No shocking free agency moves. No one saw his value undermined by a first round pick. There are some shifts in the middle portion of the list, but the most astounding event that involved a top running back in the offseason was some misinformed analyst claiming that LeSean McCoy would not be the first pick in next year’s fantasy draft.

This, as is evident to anyone who watched last year and knows how free fantasy football works will tell you, is insane. McCoy was the top point scorer among running backs last year. The Eagles will be better, at least in results, with more second half leads and more goal line opportunities for their young and healthy running back. Michael Vick might stay healthy, if he doesn’t….well he didn’t this year and McCoy still lead running backs in free fantasy football value.

But hey, if someone has a different opinion, don’t correct them. Just close the page, ignore the rest of their nonsense rankings, and beat them in 2012 fantasy football.  As with quarterbacks, I won’t go into comments about players whose value has been static since January.  For those backs, the comments made here should still be accurate.

Drafting Arian Foster is like giving the stiff-arm to your fantasy opponents

TIER I

1 LeSean McCoy – Philadelphia Eagles

2 Arian Foster – Houston Texans

3 Ray Rice – Baltimore Ravens
TIER II

4 Ryan Matthews – San Diego Chargers
Rising-Matthews was already a sleeper for 2012. Now that Mike Tolbert is gone, Matthews should have a better chance at goal line carries. I wouldn’t enter a salary cap fantasy football league without him. Remember, Matthews finished 8^th last year despite starting the year injured and with Tolbert vulturing.

5 Darren McFadden – Oakland Raiders
Rising-Yeah, McFads carries an injury risk. Is anyone below this free of question marks? McFadden was the top back in weekly fantasy football when he was healthy in 2011. The exit of Michael Bush leaves Taiwan Jones is the second back. Not a vulture theat.

6 Maurice Jones-Drew – Jacksonville Jaguars

TIER III

7 Matt Forte – Chicago Bears
Falling-The new passing targets for Jay Cutler mean less work in the passing game for Forte. It could mean more touchdowns, though, so Forte doesn’t fall far. Chicago will be good this year. So will Forte.

8 Chris Johnson – Tennessee Titans
Obviously, this is the ultimate risk/reward pick. Chris Johnson could find his previous form and finish in the top three. With all of the problems we’ve seen from the Tennessee offense and Johnson himself, I’d let someone else take the risk.

9 Michael Turner – Atlanta Falcons
Will the wheels come off at some point? Yes. Turner is no spring chicken. Do I like Jacquizz Rodgers? Yeah, he is a legit sleeper. But the wheels coming off could still mean a top 15 showing in 2012. Turner was 7^th in 2011. He is no more a risk than the other guys in this tier.

10 DeMarco Murray – Dallas Cowboys
Not an injury risk on the basis of one injury. A full season of Murray could bring the Boys to the playoffs and you to the playoffs of your free fantasy league.

The Niners used a high pick on a running back. But Frank Gore is still the guy that moves that offense.

TIER IV

11 Frank Gore – San Francisco 49ers

12 Marshawn Lynch – Seattle Seahawks

13 Jamaal Charles – Kansas City Chiefs
I’m a little worried about his injury. I’m a lot worried about his quarterback. Still, if Charles is ready to go in August, he is a top-ten back.

14 Fred Jackson – Buffalo Bills

15 Steven Jackson – St Louis Rams

TIER V

16 Willis McGahee – Denver Broncos
Rising-With Peyton Manning under center, McGahee should find a lot more space in the middle of the field.
17 Beanie Wells – Arizona Cardinals
And we’ve reached the “good back on a bad offense” part of the fantasy draft. You don’t like it, but if you missed out on the top guys, you need the carries.

18 Shonn Greene – New York Jets
Falling-With the threat of Tebow, it’s hard to be confident in anyone on the Jets putting up numbers,

19 Trent Richardson – Cleveland Browns

20 Ahmad Bradshaw – New York Giants
Falling-Drafting an additional running back in the first round will do that. Bradshaw will be the lead back, but he will lose carries to David Wilson.

21 Reggie Bush – Miami Dolphins
Falling-The Doplhins chances to play well in 2012 are falling fast. That means less carries for the Miami backs and Bush is already splitting carries at best.

For now, I'm throwing my weight behind Bernard Scott as a key mid-round pick.

TIER VI

22 Bernard Scott – Cincinnati Bengals
Rising-Cedric Benson will likely not return to Cincy. Scott was good in limited efforts in 2011. My money says he beats out Benjarvis Green-Ellis for the starting role. Keep an eye on the preseason but right now, I love Scott.

23 Ben Tate – Houston Texans
Tate is a backup but 25% of the carries in Houston is better than 45% of the carries in Carolina.

24 Jonathon Dwyer – Pittsburgh Steelers
Rising-Someone will step up in the absence of Rashard Mendenhall. If I had to guess, it would be Dwyer who has always performed when called on as an injury replacement.

25 Jonathan Stewart – Carolina Panthers

26 Deangelo Williams – Carolina Panthers
If you prefer Williams to Stewart, then feel free to reverse this. As of now it looks that each will get half the carries for a team that will likely be mediocre.

27 CJ Spiller
Fred Jackson will get the bulk of the carries, but by the end of the season, he could be worn out. If you look at the Bills schedule, the juicy matchups are stacked at the end, right when Spiller might be assuming a greater role in the offense.

28 Felix Jones

TIER VII

29 Roy Helu – Washington Redskins
Helu looks set to be the lead back in Washington. If the present dearth of names on the Redskin roster lasts till September, he will move up. But now, I’m not putting any faith in Shanahan to keep the ball in Helu’s hands.

30. LeGarrette Blount
It’s a split in Tampa between Blount and rookie Doug Martin. But Blount is still the goalline guy.

31 Jahvid Best – Detroit Lions
This is a best guess choice. The Lions have a stable of mediocre backs.  I would be surprised if there ins’t serious splittage this season.

32 Darren Sproles – New Orleans Saints
If anyone suffers due to the absence of Sean Payton on the sidelines, it’s likely Sproles. I’d rather have the guy with steady carries than the guy who counts on big plays.

33 Daniel Thomas – Maimi Dolphins
Falling-My expectations for the Dolphins have been tempered since January. So have my feelings towards Thomas.

34 Joseph Addai – New England Patriots
Another best guess. Addai is the best known back for the Patriots. But he’s not someone you can count on to stay healthy.

STILL SLEEPERS

Ryan Williams – Arizona Cardinals
Banking on the shaky durability of Beanie Wells.

Jacquizz Rodgers – Atlanta Falcons
This is the type of must-have handcuff that could win your league.