He didn't have the biggest statline, but Marques Colston may have done the most for his 2012 value this weekend.
It’s Monday again. Of course, it’s the last Monday before the conference championships so players are left with a diminishing pool of options in playoff fantasy football games. Next week, the last four teams will meet up in real football and players are either all set in playoff fantasy challenges or are scrambling to find replacement players that they can afford in salary cap playoff fantasy football contests. But still, every game means something, and we can still learn, mix up the 2012 fantasy football rankings, or just gain a better appreciation for the players that will affect our weekly fantasy football competitions in the coming year.
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Saints-49ers
After all the talk in the preceding week about how the Saints were such a fantastic running team, the New Orleans running backs came up empty on Saturday. Pierre Thomas was injured early and without him, Chris Ivory and Darren Sproles managed a combined 26 yards on 12 carries. This should be filed in category of “things we knew.” Come August, analysts will begin talking themselves into a New Orleans running back. There will be some faulty logic employed to explain why one of them will be the guy for the Saints next year. But nothing we have seen over the past few years should allow us to forecast anything but a timesplit, likely among three backs at the least.
The one player whose stock did improve for the Saints was Marques Colston. It wasn’t so much what he did today that impressed me, but the fact that it was his third straight game in which he went over 120 yards and his sixth straight over 80. (A period of time in which he has scored six TDs) I’m always weary of what I have been calling “the roulette wheel” of Saints wideouts. Colston was injured early in the season, cam e back and established himself as healthy with three strong games, then proceded to rip off a 5-game stretch in which he went over 80 yards once and scored zero times.
On the other side of the ball, the Niners went with a strategy that is far more pass-happy than we are accustomed to seeing from them. Whether you are looking ahead to next year, or just to next week, you have to believe that this is a plan that was tailored to Saturday’s opposition and not the beginning of a trend. We shouldn’t expect many games in which Alex Smith throws for 300 and three scores, just as we shouldn’t expect Frank Gore to carry the ball 13 times in a San Francisco win.
Beyond that, there isn’t much to take from this game. We already liked tight ends Vernon Davis and Jimmy Graham. (180 and 103 yards, respectively and two scores for each) We already had Drew Brees near the top of the 2012 rankings. And we should be prepared to temper our expectation for the offensive output of the Niners against a much tougher defense next week.
I liked Demaryius Thomas already, but 300 yards in two playoff games don't make me like him "more."
Broncos-Patriots
If there’s one thing that these playoffs have ensured, it’s that Demaryius Thomas will be overdrafted in August. He put up 204 against a defense that executed a truly strange plan against him and backed it up with 93 against an extremely weak defense. A few weeks ago, I thought Thomas had value as a sleeper, as he was putting something together over the last few weeks of the regular season. The playoff performances only confirmed these expectations, but I fear that these two weeks in the national spotlight will be blown out of proportion.
These playoffs have caused confusion as well, especially regarding the draft stock of Tim Tebow. He had one monster game, and one truly awful on. But the game against the Patriots tells the truth. There is no good Tim Tebow. There is regular Tebow, and there is Tebow against a soft prevent, which is only a mirror image of every quarterback against a soft prevent. During the regular season, fortune just found Tebow going up against more prevents than anyone else. He shouldn’t be near your 2012 draft board.
For the Patriots, there was one unexpected wrinkle thrown into what was an expected blowout of the Broncos with an expected big game by Tom Brady. (Although I won’t say I expected six passing touchdowns.) Tight end Aaron Hernandez ran the ball 5 times for 61 yards. Now, I already rated Hernandez very high for 2012 but this additional use for him increases his potential value by a decent amount. Other than, that it was business as usual for the Pats. Of course, we will be a bit more wary of their ability to put up gaudy stats against Baltimore next Sunday, but it could be worse. They could be going against Houston.
Jonathan Joseph is the corner you want to avoid with your matchups in 2012.
Ravens-Texans
If there is one team that stated its case for 2012 it is the Houston Texans. They went into Baltimore, and came within 7 on a day when every ball bounced the Ravens way. Joe Flacco is stripped and the ball bounces right to his teammate. Ray Rice fumbles and the ball bounces forward 6 yards to the goal line. Jacoby Jones can’t get out of the way of a punt, and he sets up the Ravens for an easy touchdown. You know things are going your way when Lee Evans hauls in a 30-yard pass.
The Texans thus enter 2012 as the league’s preeminent Ravens couldn’t move the ball at all, and only managed to get into the endzone after turnovers. Jonathan Joseph completely shut down Torrey Smith, knocking down everything that came his way. More impressively, he did it without using the types of grabs and holds that Darrelle Revis frequently gets away with. If the Texans continue to use Joseph on the opposing team’s best receiver, like they did on Sunday, fantasy players should be warned. Houston is a very tough matchup for your premier wideout.
The rest of the Texans gameplan looks to be in place for next year as well. Use Ben Tate to spell Arian Foster during the regular season. In the playoffs, unleash a rested Foster like they did on Sunday to the tune of 132 yards and a score. Find a second receiver to put opposite Andre Johnson. (8 catches for 111 yards) Throw in a healthy Matt Schaub and the Texans are an early favorite for 2012.
While the Baltimore offense was stunted by their matchup this week, that problem does not exist next week. Ray Rice should improve on his 3ypc and 60 yards. Joe Flacco may not be gifted red zone opportunities like this but he will certainly surpass the 176 yards that he put up on Sunday.
Hakeem Nicks showed that he can pick up yards after the catch, just like Victor Cruz.
Giants-Packers
One detail that I will be interested in come August is the relative ranking of Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz. Cruz was the breakout star of the regular season, (although 74 yards on Sunday wasn’t bad) while Nicks has been the star of the playoffs, connecting with Eli Manning for 165 yards and two scores this week. (after 115 and two last week) I liked Hakeem Nicks more than Cruz even before this based on a larger base of production over several years. However, this type of performance may lift his stock to the point where now Cruz is the better value. In any case you can’t go wrong with either of these guys in 2012 or next week against the 49ers.
The other result of the shellacking of the Packers by the New York Giants was the exposure on a national stage of Green Bay’s worst kept secret. Though I have been writing about it since mid-season, the mainstream media seemed willingly ignorant of the fact that Green Bay’s receivers are just not that good. Jermichael Finley is the king of drops in Wisconsin, but Jordy Nelson, and especially James Jones have often been culpable as well. Much like the multitude of Colts over the past decade, the Packers receiving corps was made to look good by the outstanding play of their quarterback. Let’s just hope that the debacle in Green Bay leads to Greg Jennings, the one sure-handed Packer, watching his draft value drop and allowing us to acquire him at the right price.
For the Giants, they face a tougher defensive matchup next week, but it’s not as tough as people will make it out to be. You have to figure that Ahmad Bradshaw (60 yards in each of the past two weeks) is in for a rough day against San Francisco, but the Saints put up a ton of passing yards this week. The Giants can do the same.
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