Gambling on a surprise Super Bowl team? How about Andre Johnson and the Texans.
There are two basic kinds of playoff fantasy football competitions. In one kind, you can select different players each week. This article will not touch on that type of contest. The other kind, which will be dealt with here, is where you pick a team at the beginning and go with it, even if your players have been eliminated. The key difference between this type of game and standard free fantasy football leagues is that you are no longer going head-to-head. You are competing against a large group of people to have the best score. A good, well-rounded team is no longer the goal. It is now best or bust. High risk/high reward should be you modus operandi. So I present a strategy that will often leave your team belly up, but could result in ultimate victory: the two-team gambit.
Don’t hedge your bets. Picking Michael Turner and Eli Manning will assure you one of them making it to the next round, but it also guarantees that one of them is sitting at home in the second round. Picking the best players from across the spectrum of playoff teams might get you near the top, but it is unlikely to get you to the pinnacle. In playoff fantasy football contests like this, you need to gamble. If you can pick two teams that will win two games, and at least play in a third, and load up with players from those teams, you give yourself a chance. If both teams hit, you could be the winner. If they miss, well, last is really no worse than fifth.
To start, you need to pick your teams. You have two basic options. You want a team that plays on the first weekend that can get to the conference championships or you want a bye team that will get to the Super Bowl. And of course, you want teams in opposite conferences. For 2012, there is actually a really strong exception to this rule. Because the Detroit Lions are the sixth seed and would be guaranteed to face Green Bay if they slip by New Orleans, you could take the Lions even if you expected them to lose to the Packers. Two games against the defenses they would matchup against might offer enough points to help you win the playoff fantasy football challenge. This fact makes a rare double NFC gambit possible. Those two games from Detroit and three from Green Bay might work out. (more on other teams later)
The next dilemma is how many guys you need from each team. You definitely need the quarterbacks from both teams, and a top target from each. I would probably take the defense from one and the kicker from the other. That often fills 6 of your 9 spots. I would want to take about 7 of 9 from the two teams, filling in the other two with a running back or receiver who had a good matchup in his first game and good chance at participating in a second game.
Lastly you can just wait and watch. If your teams hit, you will look like a genius forecaster and a champion of playoff fantasy football competitions. If they don’t, well, there’s always next year. Let’s look at an example.
The Obvious Choice: Green Bay-New England
The must-haves: Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Rob Gronkowski, Green Bay Defense, Stephen Gostkowski
Options: Wes Welker, Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson (you should have at least one)
Open spots: two running backs, possibly one wide receiver
The plus side of this matchup is that it is likely to produce results and that neither team has a running back worth taking, allowing you supplement with longshot running backs, which is not a bad idea with the lack of gimme running back choices this year. The downside is that many people will have similar lineups, even without planning it. It may also spread your dollars too thin, depending on the rules of your playoff fantasy football contest. Still, pairing one of these teams with an underdog could be very productive. let’s go through some other options.
The best team for your gambit might be Ray Rice and the Ravens
Baltmore Ravens
Must-haves: Ray Rice, Baltimore Defense:
Options: Joe Flacco, Torrey Smith, Steven Hauschka, Anquan Boldin
What’s nice about using Baltimore is that you get a running team so it locks up rb and allows you to go cheap on one qb and one receiving option. You can get your passing from your NFC team. A Baltimore-New Orleans combo could be very productive. You would need New Orleans to put up big points against Detroit, beat Frisco and at least get into a shootout against Green Bay, while hoping Baltimore gets to the big game.
Houston Texans
Must-haves: Arian Foster, Andre Johnson, Neil Rackers
Options: TJ Yates, Owen Daniels, Houston Defense
Much of what works about Houston works for Baltimore too. Furthermore, Houston has an extra game at the beginning, and an easier game than anyone else has. So Houston does not need to beat New England to pay off. It just needs to get past Baltimore.
If you need a lot of points, can you go wrong by loading up on Drew Brees and his receivers,
Detroit Lions
Must-haves: Matt Stafford, Calvin Johnson,
Options: Brandon Pettigrew, Kevin Smith, Jason Hanson
I touched on Detroit’s benefits above. If the can beat New Orleans they are worth your while.
New Orleans Saints
Must-haves: Drew Brees, Jimmy Graham,
Options: John Kasay, Marques Colston, Darren Sproles, Chris Ivory(who I love as a low-price option to fill out your team if you don’t choose New Orleans)
The tough Niner D awaits in the second round and Detroit isn’t a gimme.
New York Giants and Atlanta Falcons
While both of these teams, have the potential of facing that Packer defense if they win in round one, I give neither much chance of reaching a third game. Throw in the fact that this game is basically a toss-up and I am clearing away from most of these players in playoff fantasy football competitions.
The Rest
If you like San Francisco, Pittsburgh, Denver or Cincinnati, go ahead, but I don’t think that even if they win the prescribed games, they will score enough points for it to be worth your while. The main value on those teams is in extra players. If you have Green Bay or Detroit, Vernon Davis would be a nice extra, with potential matchups against the Saints and the Packers looming. Willis McGahee could be decent add as well with potential for a second game.
Finishing your team can be tricky. If you’ve loaded up on players from high-powered offenses, you might be left with very little cash to spend. Remember, your whole team is a gamble. Your low price players should be guys with potential. Robert Meacham is your ideal target. Deion Branch, Brandon Jacobs, etc. You want guys that could have one huge games, and hopefully won’t go immediately against one of your two teams.
One last note, some playoff challenges allow more starters. In this situation, you could expand the two-team gambit to include a third team. Ravens-Packers-Lions strikes me as being an excellent choice.
Play Fantasy Football! Looking for the best Weekly Fantasy Football Games out there? Our friends at Fantazzle have just what you need. Play weekly College and NFL Salary Cap, Pickem and Challenge Fantasy Football Games for free and entry fees and win cash prizes!
You May Also Be Interested In:
Tags: free fantasy football competition, playoff fantasy football contest, playoff fantasy football games
