News Flash: Jamaal Charles is Fast!

It’s always hard to look ahead without seeing how the draft and free agency shake out in the NFL. It will be even more difficult this year because of the labor stoppage and even a few rule changes. We are going to keep trying anyway though right?

It looks as if next season may finally get us back to the good old days when running backs dominated the fantasy football game. A lot of running backs emerged this year and joined the elite category that was so thin in many previous years. I have also never been a fan of wide receivers in round 1, but there are two can’t miss WRs for 2011 in Roddy White and Andre Johnson, so that has changed my mind a little. Let’s take a first at a potential first round draft for 2011…

1. Adrian Peterson – RB – Minnesota Vikings – He is a flat out fantasy stud. He has finished in the top 3 in fantasy points every year he has been in the league. That is the kind of sure thing pick you want to make in the number one spot. Many owners regretted selecting Chris Johnson over him for much of the 2010 season. He will be even more valuable with the Vikings likely taking a more run heavy approach in 2011 after Brett Favre’s (likely) retirement this offseason.

2. Arian Foster – RB – Houston Texans – Foster showed week in and week out that he was the most valuable player in fantasy football last season. He started it off with a bang with 200+ rushing yards and 3 TDs against the Colts and never looked back. He led the league lead in yards from scrimmage and we all know how fantasy owners value a versatile back making his 66 receptions an undervalued stat and gave him one of the best fantasy seasons ever. Houston’s entire offensive coaching staff has been tabbed to return in 2011 and the presence of Gary Kubiak and his zone blocking scheme should lock Foster into the top 3 picks in almost every draft.

3. Jamaal Charles – RB – Kansas City Chiefs - Master Chief (Yes that is a Halo reference) is ahead of Chris Johnson simply because the majority of his offensive support players will be back. He may be forced to split carries with Thomas Jones this season, but still was in the top-5 most productive fantasy backs in the league while most days Jones’ failed to even get out of the gate. Jones will be another year older next season and likely yielding more opportunities for Charles, but also allowing the Chiefs to keep him fresh. Charles likely has the most upside of any running back in fantasy football heading into 2011.

4. Chris Johnson – RB – Tennessee Titans - Likely the most talented back in the NFL, Johnson had a slightly disappointing year in 2010. He was very close to his floor it would seem, with no real threat of the passing game, offensive injuries and poor play-calling. We have seen close to his ceiling as well though and that makes him one of the most dangerous players in fantasy football. If you can get him with the 4^th pick in 2011, you will not be complaining. He is losing his quarterback and his head coach, but here is to hoping the Titans can build a more explosive offense around him this offseason.

5. Michael Vick – QB – Philadelphia Eagles - The consensus is that you have to stack running backs and receivers at the top of fantasy football drafts because quarterbacks can’t be as valuable compared to other players at their position. We may have finally found the exception however. Vick has the rushing ability to simply outscore every quarterback week in and week out. His one major concern is his health, but playing in Andy Reid’s pass-heavy system in Philly allows him to put up explosive numbers in the air as well as on the ground and should keep him off the injured list as much as possible. Vick scored almost 30 points per week this season with second place signal caller Aaron Rogers at only 25 points per week. There is no other position where the leader outpaced the field by this much. Vick is a surefire first round pick and almost assuredly the first QB taken. You may want to pair him with Kevin Kobb if he is still in Philly for injury insurance though.

6. Ray Rice – RB – Baltimore Ravens – Rice struggled a little in 2010 to live up to lofty expectations. He lacked touchdowns and didn’t start producing big plays until late in the season, but with Willis McGahee not expected to return his star should shine brighter in 2011. Expect the Ravens to improve their passing game, but go back to focusing on the run which they failed to do for most of this season. Expect at least 1,500+ yards from scrimmage and double digit touchdowns with Rice likely assuming the goal-line work with McGahee out of the picture.

7. Andre Johnson – WR – Houston Texans - Johnson is the Adrian Peterson of wide receivers, the pinnacle of consistency. If he had not had a lingering ankle injury, he would have easily reached 1,500 yards for the third straight season. If you want a sure thing at wide receiver look no further than Johnson in the middle of the first round. Like Arian Foster, Andre Johnson will benefit from the return of the entire Houston offensive staff.

8. Roddy White – WR – Atlanta Falcons – White appears to be Andre Johnson 2.0. Hot Roddy was one of the most targeted receivers this season and is the uncontested feature of the Atlanta passing attack. As he and Matt Ryan continue to improve they will shift to a more pass heavy team. 2011 could be the next step. Michael Turner seems to have lost some explosiveness and Ryan and White already made huge strides this season. Look for White to improve upon his numbers this season and be surely worth a late first round pick.

9. LeSean McCoy – RB – Philadelphia Eagles - Shady finished 6^th in running back fantasy points this season. However, if you watched him play at times this season, it appears that he can be even better. He showed uncanny explosiveness before injuring his ribs mid-season. If he can stay healthy he has a chance to be one of the best backs in the league. His pass catching ability is what allows him to stay this high even in a pass-first offense. He led all backs in catches and was second in receiving yards. Draft him in the middle of round 1 with confidence.

10. Darren McFadden – RB – Oakland Raiders - Even missing a few games with a pulled hamstring could not keep McFadden out of the top-5 in fantasy points last season and he finished second in points per game. He showed flashes of the runner he was at Arkansas, but with more power. He may be on the same talent level as Chris Johnson with his size and speed combination these days, but questions about his durability still keep him towards the end of the first round. If the Raiders improve their passing game and McFadden stays healthy he can easily finish in the top-3-5 running backs in fantasy next year.

11. Maurice Jones-Drew – RB – Jacksonville Jaguars – He had knee surgery following last season, but he showed us why he has been a perennial first round pick for the last few years again this season by totaling 1,600 yards and 9 TDs while playing on a severely injured knee. If he gets healthy before the season expect at least those kinds of numbers if not better.

12. Aaron Rodgers – QB – Green Bay Packers - Yes, another quarterback in the first round. Rodgers was the second highest scoring fantasy QB this season and it seemed he had a bit of a down year in 2010 compared to what was expected from him. I see Rodgers living up to the hype he had heading into last season in his 2011 campaign. Rodgers not only puts up some of the best passing numbers in the league, but adds valuable rushing yardage and scores every season. The Packers should be able to make teams respect the run more in 2011 as well, with Ryan Grant returning from injury and James Starks coming on late last season. He may not be Michael Vick, but he is as close as you can come. I see those two finishing well ahead of the other elite QB’s in 2011.

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Tags: aaron rodgers, adrian peterson, chris johnson, early fantasy football draft, Fantasy Football, fantasy football draft, fantasy football mock draft, jamaal charles, Michael Vick, nfl

This entry was posted on Wednesday, March 23rd, 2011 at 10:10 pm and is filed under Fantasy Football. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.