Sleeper Alert: Ryan will Grant you success this weekend

We are down to the NFL’s elite eight, meaning that fantasy football options are very limited this week. Here is an overview of each contest, and the fantasy forecast for each team.

New Orleans Saints @ San Francisco 49ers

This is your classic strength vs strength match up, as the second best scoring offense takes on the second best scoring defense. San Fran excels at stuffing the run, so it is hard to imagine the Saints making an effort for a balanced offense. Darren Sproles figures to be the only New Orleans RB even worth looking at, but with a lack of carries, I wouldn’t promote him. The high flying Saints offense is the hottest in the game right now, but you’re not picking players for what they have done, rather what they will do. I’ve got Brees as my third ranked QB this week, and don’t expect him to produce the video game numbers that he seems to put up weekly. The same logic applies to Jimmy Graham, who may find the going a bit tough with Patrick Willis manning the middle of the field. Marques Colston may be the best receiver left in the playoffs, and I would not hesitate to make him a WR1 in San Francisco.

When the 49ers have the ball, it will be the Frank Gore show. The old baseball adage of “if you are going to get beat, get beat doing what you do well” rings true for the sometimes stagnant San Fran offense. I expect a big day from Gore, totaling 25 touches and over 100 yards. Other than Gore, the 49er team offers but one fantasy relevant player, and that’s Vernon Davis. Much has been made about the 49ers red zone woes, and I expect Davis to be the target of a handful of passes in scoring position. A six catch, 80 yard day would not surprise me, with the potential to get into the end zone.

Denver Broncos @ New England Patriots

I’ve got Tom Brady in the same boat as Drew Brees this week; an elite talent stuck in a tough match up. I realize that Brady tore apart the Broncos in their regular season meeting, but with all of the marbles on the line, expect Denver to perform better. Part of the past success was predicated on a early lead, which forced the Broncos to abandon their game plan. I’ve got Brady as my fourth best option at QB this week due to the Broncos ability to control the clock, and keep #12 on the sideline. Even though I believe Brady will not produce superior numbers, his receivers still can. Limited possessions will hurt Welker’s catch total, but that doesn’t change the fact that the Broncos have no answer for him.  Treat the pesky receiver as a low end WR1 this week. Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez are both legitmate pass catching options this week, and I expect them to share the field more often than not against Denver. Gronk is my top option at TE, but Hernandez may be the better value play.

By now you know the story with the Broncos – boom or bust. Colin Cowherd stated that “even a bad QB can have an amazing game”, and I agree with that evaluation of Tebow’s performance against the Steelers. While Pittsburgh’s defense is tough than that of New England, I don’t expect another 300+ day from Tebow. The Pats figure to respect the pass game a bit more than the Steelers did, which is good news for Willis McGahee. I’m targeting only one player from Denver, and McGahee fits that bill, as he attacks a weak defense in what should still be a run oriented offense. I’d select McGahee ahead of the Giants backfield duo for this weekend, and just behind the top notch RB’s (Rice, Foster, and Gore).

Houston Texans @ Baltimore Ravens

This game is more for football fans than it is fantasy football owners. Both teams boast great defense facing strong running games. I prefer Ray Rice when it comes the ground game, as his ability to catch passes sets him apart. The lone knock on Rice in the past was his inability to score, but with 15 TD’s this season, that weakness has turned into a strength. If you run really low on cash in Fantazzle’s salary cap games, don’t sleep on Ricky Williams to potentially vulture a TD. With Vonte Leach leading the way, it is possible that the Ravens try to employ a smash mouth style when their backs are against the wall. I wouldn’t start Flacco this week, and the only Raven WR I’m even considering is game breaking Torrey Smith. He has the ability to make one catch a productive fantasy day, and would be worth rolling the dice on this Sunday.

TJ Yates isn’t a fantasy QB yet, but he is improving. He is good at handing the ball off, which is why I like Arian Foster more than most RB’s this week. Foster has lived up to the hype as the season has progressed, and I see no reason for the Texans to stop feeding their stud. Ben Tate does cut into his workload a bit, but make no mistake, Foster will produce in a big way (like last week) if the Texans have any chance in this game. Andre Johnson proved his health by scoring last week, but I am still skeptical about his ability to produce with Yates under center. He will cost you more than he is worth this weekend.

New York Giants @ Green Bay Packers

When these two teams met earlier in the season, it was a fantasy owners dream. The scoreboard was changing on a consistent basis, in large part due to the passing game. Eli Manning is the hotter QB in this match up, and there is little to suggest he won’t have another big afternoon in Lambeau. Hakeem Nicks finally stepped up in the Giants beat down of the Falcons, and that was enough to bump him ahead of Victor Cruz in my rankings this week. That being said, I would not hesitate to roster either one of them against a vulnerable Packers secondary. I also like Ahmad Bradshaw this weekend, as he faces a weak run defense and figures to get plenty of work as the Giants will try to keep Rodgers and the Packers offense on the sidelines. Bradshaw could get a “weather boost”should Lambeau freeze and make passing yards harder to come by.

For Green Bay, the beat goes on, and virtually anybody you can name is worth rostering. Greg Jennings is back from a month off, and while he may show some signs of rust in the first half, I expect his final line to be useful. Jordy Nelson and Jermichael Finley also provide headaches for opposing defenses, and that shouldn’t change. The lone sleeper in this game is Ryan Grant (that’s right, I’m gambling on a Packer RB). Much like how Tim Tebow caught the Steelers off guard, I expect Grant to shock the Giants. It is almost a certainty that Grant will face 4-6 man fronts, conducive for a solid running game. He’s not carrying the ball 20 times, but he should provide great value.

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Tags: Arian Foster, fantasy football playoffs, fantazzle, frank gore, Greg Jennings, Hakeem Nicks, ray rice, Ryan Grant, tim tebow, tom brady, Victor Cruz

This entry was posted on Thursday, January 12th, 2012 at 8:55 pm and is filed under Fantasy Football, Fantasy Football Playoffs, Fantasy Football Preview. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.