Fantasy Take: Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III

As I’ve said before, when prognosticating the fortunes of rookies in free fantasy football, the NFL draft is an inexact science and a young player’s situation is often more predictive than our view of his natural talents. Recognizing that distinction, it become clear which of 2012’s highly touted draft picks is the superior option for weekly fantasy football. Robert Griffin III. Andrew Luck may end up with the better career, but in 2012, RG3000 is likely to put up better numbers.

Between them, Rex Grossman and John Beck threw for four thousand yards last season. Since then, Washington has added a few options to their passing game, most importantly Pierre Garcon. If Griffin is as good as advertised, he should be able to improve on the nineteen passing touchdowns that Washington qbs combined in 2011. Additionally, Washington will play a tough schedule, full of teams that are likely better than the Skins. Griffin should have ample opportunities to throw deep in te second half.

For all that works in his favor, I don’t have the confidence in Robert Griffin III that I do in the top-11 quarterbacks. Griffin has yet to play an NFL down. Thus, it’s tough to put him any higher than the fifth tier of the 2012 fantasy football rankings. Stick him at the top of that tier for now, 12th. Salary cap fantasy football players will want to put Luck in the same tier but near the bottom, 16th.

Luck is playing for a team that put up exceedingly poor numbers last year. That same team lost one of its two starting receivers, the aforementioned Garcon. But, Luck is touted to be the most NFL-ready quarterback in years and he joins an offense that was designed around a player with a supposedly similar skill set. So while Luck may emerge as a star, picking him for this season is certainly a gamble.

 


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