The 2012 fantasy draft board begins with LeSean McCoy

It may be cliché but at the moment, whether you are in the fantasy finals or are sitting in the sideline, but you are undefeated in the 2012 fantasy football season. Many are playing playoff fantasy football games, but others are already dreaming of next year. Is it too soon to start planning? We still have the NFL playoffs and then the long, lonely months of the offseason. But that offseason will make you forget. Forgetting will leave you at the mercy of the same default info that everyone doles out in August.

To remember we must record. In fact, the whole reason that I started writing about fantasy football was to record my thoughts at the end of the season. The next July, I opened up my blog and found a wealth of information that I would have otherwise forgotten. I drafted Aaron Rodgers and Chris Johnson in the 10^th and 11^th rounds of every draft I participated in and the rest was history. So as we should do every year, let’s review the 2011 season and take a look at the future prospects of the fantasy players that will impact your season. We will start, of course, with running backs. In standard forms of free fantasy football, running backs should still be the first picks taken off the board.

TIER I

1. LeSean McCoy—Eagles
Drafted 6^th I said 9^th Finished 1^st
LeSean McCoy surpassed all expectations this year, performing well even with Mike Vick out of the lineup. Doubts about McCoy were sprung from a fear of how he would play when Vick was inevitably injured, as Vick has always opened things up for his backs to succeed. Somehow, McCoy has finished first without attracting a media attention, as the disappointments and injuries have garnered more press this year than the successes. In a way he finished in first by default, as the top performers all missed time this year.

As funny as it sounds, the top points scorer is poised to have an even better year in 2012. Consider, could the Eagles play worse next year? Likely not. McCoy will have more redzone opportunities in 2012 and more second half leads. Will the Eagles find anyone besides McCoy that is competent on the goal line? A decade of Andy Reid teams suggest otherwise. McCoy is young, improving and the number one pick of the 2012 fantasy draft.

2. Adrian Peterson—Vikings
Drafted 1^st I said 1^st Finished 5^th
If Peterson hadn’t missed a few games, he would have likely been on top again. As this is the first time Peterson has missed significant time as a pro, he won’t be labeled as injury prone just yet. The Vikings were awful this year and Peterson, while he was in, still put up numbers. With an improved Christian Ponder, there is nothing to stop Peterson from reclaiming his place among the top tier of running backs and resuming his role as the top target in weekly fantasy football. UPDATE: After week 16, it is highly doubtful that Peterson plays a game in 2012. Likely, he will never be a top tier fantasy player again.

2. Arian Foster—Texans
Drafted 2^nd I said 2^nd Finished 4^th
Like Peterson, Foster missed time en route to a top-5 finish. Unlike Peterson and McCoy, Foster has a challenge for his carries in Ben Tate. However, the Texan running attack is much stronger than that of the Vikings and Eagles. They have a better oline and a better defense. If Gary Kubiak splits the carries wisely, and Foster does not get hurt in the preseason again, the undrafted back from Tennessee will justify being drafted in the top tier once again.

TIER I.5

The first debate in 2012: Ray Rice of Aaron Rodgers with the fourth pick.

3. Ray Rice—Ravens
Drafted 5^th I said 8^th Finished 2^nd
I was wrong on the Ravens and wrong on Rice. I thought it was the Ravens defense that would decline, leaving Rice with less opportunity. It turned out to be the Steelers that dropped out of the elite defenses and Mendenhall who suffered. The Raven D no longer shows signs of dropping off and Rice is now the one who should continue to put up good numbers. Rice put up especially good numbers against weak defenses, so he remains a particular good player to target in weekly fantasy football, but in a year-long lead, Rice provides the consistent play you look for in a top pick. He remains a notch below the top tier, but he doesn’t have a flag like the backs in the next tier.

TIER II

At this point in standard drafts you start to think about other options. In 2012, the other option that you would consider at this point is only Aaron Rodgers. Somewhere in this tier, wide receivers will start to come up. We will look at that later. If you are playing it safe, a wideout might be the way to go, because all of the running backs in this tier have a flag, a factor that causes you to doubt that they will fulfill their potential. Remember this is only the beginning of the rankings

4. Ryan Matthews—Chargers
Drafted 22^nd I said 12^th Finished 8^th
As I recently discussed, Ryan Matthews has come along as the year has gone on. To sum up, the role of Mike Tolbert should be decreased next year, the Charger offense should move the ball more efficiently through the air and Matthews should see more goal line carries. Coming into the season at 100% should allow him to surpass him 2011 numbers. There are durability concerns but barring an injury, nothing should keep Matthews out of the top tier in 2012.

5. Darren McFadden—Raiders
Drafted 9^th I said 5^th Finished 1^st*
McFadden was the best running back in football before he was injured. Whether you play salary cap fantasy football or the standard variety, Run DMC did not disappoint, up to the point where he was injured. And yes, McFadden is injury-prone. He has not played a complete season yet in the NFL. But, applying the Steven Jackson corollary, we would rather have a running back that will produce when he is in, and then allow you to play someone else when he is out. Count on 12-13 games from McFadden, as he played in his first three years, and top-5 production for those games.

6. Maurice Jones-Drew—Jaguars
Drafted 8^th I said 10^th Finished 3^rd
I, like the general body of analysts, was worried about the injury reports circulating about Jones-Drew during the pre-season. He dropped a few spots on most draft boards because of it, thus rewarding those who did draft him mightily when he turned out to be fine. Next year, odds are high that he repeats his success. To end up as the rushing leader while playing with that passing offense is an accomplishment. Doesn’t that segment of the team have to be somewhat better next year? Even if MJD does not gain the most yards in the league again, shouldn’t he have more chances at touchdowns? The flag on Jones-Drew is the heavy workload he has carried for the past three years. Will he, like Peterson this year, finally succumb. My money says he has at least one more year of high-productivity, but I’d rather bail a year too early than a year too late.

7. Matt Forte—Bears
Drafted 13^th I said 13^th Finished 15^th
Forte was a top 5-6 performer while he was in the lineup. His injury was more of a one-timer than a chronic problem. He should be good to go for your free fantasy football team in 2011. The one thing you worry about when drafting Forte is the quality of the offensive line that plays in Chicago. How much can he do all by himself? Forte needs Jay Cutler to be active to have any hope of consistently penetrating a defense that would otherwise be able to stack the box against him. With a healthy Cutler and healthy Forte, top-5 numbers are possible. But hoping for health from a running back is hard enough. When a running back’s value is tied to the health of two different people, he cannot be considered a top tier back.

Michael Turner will turn 31 during the 2012 season.

TIER II.5

8. Michael Turner—Falcons
Drafted 10^th I said 6^th Finished 7^th
I was high on Turner coming into the year because of his consistency, and the quality of the offensive line and defense in Atlanta. All those things held true and Turner finished right where I expected. I am less high on Turner for 2011 for one reason. Turner will be 30 before the season is out. The shelf life of running backs rarely extends past this point. Additionally, the signs of age were already showing in Turner’s play in 2010. The decline should begin this year, although he likely has one more year of second tier production. However, I would not be surprised to see a bigger role for Jacquizz Rodgers next year and would shy away from drafting Michael Turner in the first round.

9. Chris Johnson—Titans
Drafted 3^rd I said 3^rd Finished 20^th
I’ve written many words about Chris Johnson over the last two years, most recently on Monday. The problem is that this team doesn’t know how to run the ball. The line is awful and the coach seems insistent on using a power running game, which Johnson is unsuited for. CJ2K will be a huge risk in 2012. It could pay off, but I’m not sure I’m willing to take it. After those top 8 running backs are gone, I will probably start filling out my receiving corps.

Continue to Part II: More Running Backs

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Tags: 2012, 2012 fantasy football, adrian peterson, Arian Foster, darren mcfadden, fantasy football rankings, free weekly salary cap fantasy football, free weekly salary cap fantasy football games, free weekly salary cap fantasy games, lesean mccoy, Matt Forte, ryan matthews

This entry was posted on Wednesday, December 21st, 2011 at 4:19 pm and is filed under Fantasy Football, Fantasy Rankings, Free Fantasy Football. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.