After six touchdowns in three games, Calvin Johnson is the best wide reciver in fantasy football.
Shockingly, four games have already been played. That’s a quarter of the 2011 fantasy season. Most of the guys that will top the lists at the end of the year should have made their presence felt. So let’s take a look at the current top ten wide receivers and see if there are opportunities for smart fantasy owners to make a move, either by jettisoning a player before his numbers drop off, or by acquiring a big target that can help win a championship.
Wes Welker – New England Patriots—91 pts
No, Welker’s numbers aren’t likely to be maintained. Fortunately for his owners, they don’t need anything like what he has given them so far. Welker produced outstanding numbers against the three poorer defenses he’s faced and was held to 81 yards by the Chargers. Looking ahead, he has two games against the Jets and one against the Cowboys coming up, so don’t expect a repeat of the numbers he put up against Buffalo and Miami. Reasonable expectations would include something on the order of 100+ yards a game, and a touchdown in most of them. That means Welker is still a top-10 guy going forward, but not the number one receiver in fantasy. Verdict: Sell. Someone could buy these numbers as the status quo.
Calvin Johnson—Detroit Lions –77pts
Johnson is right where many expected him to be, at the top of the list. After years of producing good fantasy totals with mediocre quarterback play, are we surprised that when he finally got consistent play from his signal caller, he has become the top fantasy wideout? Verdict: Buy, but I doubt anyone is selling.
Steve Smith—Carolina Panthers—61 pts
The 178 yards Smith put up in week one could have been seen as a fluke. Three hits of 150+ yards in four tries is a trend. The Newton to Smith connection is no aberration. Smith missed only against Jacksonville, when Carolina pulled out the win. As long as Carolina is losing games, Smith will continue to put up great fantasy numbers. Seriously, Smith is third in fantasy points and he only has two touchdowns. Verdict: Buy now, before he lights up New Orleans. Steve Smith finishes in the top ten, and many owners might not yet believe that.
Mike Wallace—Pittsburgh Steelers—55 pts
Wallace is where a lot of prognosticators thought he would be. His totals place him on the edge of the top five. However, I don’t think this trend continues. His hot start was fueled by matchups against a few week defenses and Pittsburgh’s offense seems to be on the decline. Roethlisberger cannot possibly maintain his health with the way his line is playing. When Big Ben is out, Wallace will struggle to maintain his numbers. Because of that risk, Wallace shouldn’t be seen as more than a low end number one starter. Verdict: Sell, though two of the next three games could buoy his value.
Vincent Jackson—San Diego Chargers—54 pts
The early part of Jackson’s season has been hampered by injuries. Despite that, he is fifth in fantasy points. You have to ask yourself: what will he do when he is healthy. With Antonio Gates suffering foot injuries again, Jackson is the number one target on a top offense. He is a deep target and a red zone target. Verdict: Buy, Jackson is the second best option going forward.
Eric Decker—Denver Broncos—53 pts
If you haven’t looked at the rankings, you might be surprised to see Decker on this list. That’s because he has produced the flukiest of fantasy points: one big game, and touchdowns on a team that doesn’t produce a lot of touchdowns. So I would sell him, in the sense that he is a number three receiver at best, but I doubt anyone is taking his current level of production seriously. Verdict: Sell, do you really need a 50 ypg receiver when the touchdowns dry up?
Greg Jennings—Green Bay Packers—52 pts
If you want consistent opportunities, look no further than Greg Jennings. Yeah, Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers spreads it around. But on this offense, there is a lot to spread. And Jennings remains the top target for the Packers. Eventually, some of those bombs to Jordy Nelson will fall into Jennings’s hands. Verdict: Buy, Jennings works his way into the top 5 by year’s end.
Larry Fitzgerald—Arizona Cardinals—47 pts
Larry Fitzgerald: eight among wide receivers. This is what we should have expected. This is what we will continue to get. If you thought Kevin Kolb was good enough to bring Fitzgerald back to the top three, that was wrong. Verdict: Neutral.
Stevie Johnson—Buffalo Bills—47 pts
Some thought Johnson would be here this year. His star is clearly rising as he adds consistency to the astounding potential he displayed as a rookie. With Fitzpatrick playing well, and an additional game against the sieve that New England calls a pass defense, Johnson is in the top ten to stay. Verdict: Buy
Miles Austin—Dallas Cowboys—46 pts
Austin put up these numbers in only two games. In two games against solid defenses. With the receiver slated to return after the bye, his production should resume as scheduled. Verdict: Buy, before he lights up New England, and people realize he is averaging twenty fantasy points a game.
Jordy Nelson—Green Bay Packers—46 pts
So far on the Packer offense roulette wheel, Nelson has hit three times and missed once. If that continues, he would be a solid play. It’s more likely, however that he hits two out of four going forward, which makes him a much riskier play. Anyone whose value comes mostly from long, 80+ yard receptions has to raise a red flag. Verdict: Sell.
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Tags: 2011 fantasy football rankings, 2011 fantasy football wide receivers, calvin johnson, erick decker, Greg Jennings, Larry Fitzgerald, mike wallace, miles austin, steve johnson, Steve Smith, Vincent Jackson, wes welker
